Project Summary

Daniel R. Lynch, Christopher E. Naimie, Craig V. Lewis, Benoit Cushman-Roisin (Dartmouth College); R. Gregory Lough, James P. Manning (NMFS); Francisco E. Werner (University of North Carolina); Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Cabell S. Davis, Scott M. Gallager (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)

Real-Time Data Assimilation on Georges Bank

We propose to develop, use, and evaluate a real-time nowcast/forecast system for the Georges Bank system. The scope of the system will include physical and biological variables relevant to the circulation and target species within the US GLOBEC NW Atlantic program. The intent is to provide networked capability for assimilating in-situ observations (from ship, moored and drifting instruments, as well as remotely sensed observations) into simulation models to provide the best estimate of the physical and ecological state of the ocean; to utilize network-avaliable atmospheric forecasts to produce a circulation forecast; to examine the implications of the forecast on the ecology; and to guide the adjustment of the experimental protocol to maximize its relevance for cruise-specific goals. The system will be built from established and emerging GLOBEC tools for simulation and hindcast of Georges Bank. There are five phases:

Our central hypothesis is that real-time forecasts are possible for detailed coupled physical/biological phenomena, with sufficient skill to allow adjustment of the observational protocol. This will be tested in an energetic and complex multi-frontal system, in the operational context of real, contemporary experiments about the coupled biophysical system itself.