Project Summary
Daniel R. Lynch, Christopher E. Naimie, Craig V. Lewis, Benoit
Cushman-Roisin (Dartmouth College); R. Gregory Lough, James P.
Manning (NMFS); Francisco E. Werner (University of North Carolina);
Dennis J. McGillicuddy, Cabell S. Davis, Scott M. Gallager (Woods
Hole Oceanographic Institution)
Real-Time Data Assimilation on Georges Bank
We propose to develop, use, and evaluate a real-time
nowcast/forecast system for the Georges Bank system. The scope of
the system will include physical and biological variables relevant
to the circulation and target species within the US GLOBEC NW
Atlantic program. The intent is to provide networked capability for
assimilating in-situ observations (from ship, moored and drifting
instruments, as well as remotely sensed observations) into
simulation models to provide the best estimate of the physical and
ecological state of the ocean; to utilize network-avaliable
atmospheric forecasts to produce a circulation forecast; to examine
the implications of the forecast on the ecology; and to guide the
adjustment of the experimental protocol to maximize its relevance
for cruise-specific goals. The system will be built from
established and emerging GLOBEC tools for simulation and hindcast of
Georges Bank. There are five phases:
- intensive use of Observational System Simulation Experiments
during Summer 1998, to develop software, procedures, and operator
skill;
- a test cruise during Fall 1998, preceded by a period of
engineering and networking considerations;
- three Target Cruises in Winter/Spring 1999 with specific GLOBEC
objectives requiring observations in key sections of the Bank's
frontal regime;
- a post-cruise evaluative period beginning Fall 1999 wherein the
system skill is assessed in hindcast mode;
- a period of technology transfer to operating agencies.
Our central hypothesis is that real-time forecasts are possible for
detailed coupled physical/biological phenomena, with sufficient
skill to allow adjustment of the observational protocol. This will
be tested in an energetic and complex multi-frontal system, in the
operational context of real, contemporary experiments about the
coupled biophysical system itself.