GLOBEC Synthesis from a Program Manager’s Perspective

GLOBEC NWA SI Meeting

June 22, 2004

Synthesis

It’s hard!

What to focus on

What to leave out

There’s never enough money

No single way to do it

Multiple paths

Multiple groups of people

No prescribed end product

Why is synthesis so hard?

Make general conclusions from specific information

Requires speculation and extrapolation

Takes lots of time and interactive discussion

Can’t be done by large group, usually takes smaller group of 4 – 8 individuals, or several smaller groups which come together along the way

Synthesis (cont)

Data goes through processing & statistics to create

Information gets synthesized to create

Knowledge gets integrated into the political process to inform and enable

Action which (hopefully) will result in

Societal Benefit

The PART Process

Program Assessment Rating Tool

“The PART was developed to assess and improve program performance so that the Federal government can achieve better results. A PART review helps identify a program’s strengths and weaknesses to inform funding and management decisions aimed at making the program more effective.”

The NOAA Ecosystem Matrix program will be “PART-ed” this year

COP sits within Ecosystem Matrix, as does much of NMFS

NMFS was “PART-ed” last year, with a rating of “adequate”

PART Questions

GLOBEC Legacy
National SSC Meeting, 5/04

Modeling advances

Data

Students

Influence on future programs

What will be the legacy of GLOBEC NWA?

New US GLOBEC Committees
National SSC Meeting, 5/04

Data management (Wiebe plus many others)

National conferences (Haidvogel, Batchelder, Werner)

Pan-regional synthesis (Fogarty + regional Chairs)

Book(s) (Ohman, Beardsley)

Quantitative skill assessment (McGillicuddy, Brodeur)

Ecosystem approaches to management (Murawski, Fogarty)

Overall GLOBEC Goals

“GLOBEC is designed to evaluate the likely consequences of changes in global climate and physics to the sustainability of animal production in the sea” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 11)

“GLOBEC intends to vastly increase our understanding of the fundamental mechanistic processes that dictate

The abundance of marine animals

The fluctuations in their abundance, and

The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 20)

The GLOBEC Challenge

“The challenge to all prospective investigators is to demonstrate convincingly that their work leads to a new level of understanding of the links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change” (GLOBEC Report #6, p 6)

GLOBEC NWA Hypotheses
(GLOBEC Report #6, pp 2-3)

In situ growth rather than lateral exchange is the dominant process controlling the abundance of animals on the Bank;

Seasonal density stratification over the S flank causes prey aggregation in the pycnocline and thus increased survival of predator populations;

Temporal changes in mixing and stratification may control the abundance and spp. composition of phytoplankton which in turn may result in different rates of growth and production of herbivorous copepods in well-mixed, frontal, and stratified regions of the Bank;

The occurrence of large, episodic exchanges of water and organisms on/off the Bank contributes to variability in popn abundances;

Seasonal density stratification and the processes of turbulent mixing influence predator-prey encounter rates and thus the growth and survival of individual organisms;

Predation rather than starvation is the dominant source of mortality of fish larvae; predation rather than advective loss is the dominant source of mortality of copepods.

“But we didn’t get the resources to accomplish everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan”

“The study is envisioned to begin in 1993, with major field experiments to be conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998…In the intervening years, 1995 and 1997, less intensive broad-scale survey work should be conducted to monitor inter-annual variability” No mention of synthesis phase or further phases beyond field years.

Funding began in 1993, field experiments in 1995, 1997, 1999. Decade of funding since program began.

Total = $54 M over 11 years

$10.5M for shiptime

$4M per year 1993-1995 = $12M

$3M in 1996 = $3M

$4.5M per year 1997-2001 = $22.5M

$2M per year 2002-2004 = $6M

“But we didn’t get the shiptime to accomplish everything we had outlined in the Implementation Plan”

Vastly increase our understanding

What do you know now about Georges Bank that you didn’t know 10 years ago?

If you were to re-write the NWA Implementation Plan (GLOBEC Report #6) pp 6-24, what would be different?

Georges Bank book?

“State of Georges Bank” report?

How will changing climate/NAO affect GB processes, structure, and function?

The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate

Important Events

98/99 recruitment

98 copepods?

Scotian Shelf crossovers

Hydrographic interannual variability

NAO shifts

Can you ask better questions at the end than you could at the beginning?

“In some ways we are more confused than ever, but we feel that we are confused on a higher level and about more important things”

What questions would you now ask about Georges Bank/GoMe, that you couldn’t ask before GLOBEC?

Set up for pan-regional synthesis

What are the dominant/controlling processes on Georges Bank?

What larger (basin-scale) processes are at work to determine popn dyn and secondary production on GB?

How would a climate signal propagate through the GB ecosystem?

“links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change”

NOAA Deliverables

Predictive capability

What can you predict? On what time/space scales? With what uncertainty? Who will use these predictions? How will these predictions be used?

Management uses

What GLOBEC results are being used now in fisheries management? How has GLOBEC improved the management of living marine resources?

Where, when and how often should future measurements be taken to capture important features of Georges Bank/GoMe? (tie-in with Ocean Observations)

Technology development

What GLOBEC technology is routinely used in NOAA operations now?

Presentation materials

In early GLOBEC years, Zack and Peter pounded the corridors of Congress drumming up support for the program

In past COP crises, it was argued that some action/budget cut/reorganization would be devastating to GLOBEC

Now, it’s time to show how support in Congress and saving COP funding has led to tremendous success in GLOBEC


	It’s hard!
		What to focus on
		What to leave out
	There’s never enough money
	No single way to do it
		Multiple paths
		Multiple groups of people
	No prescribed end product


	Make general conclusions from specific information
		Requires speculation and extrapolation
	Takes lots of time and interactive discussion
	Can’t be done by large group, usually takes smaller group of 4 – 8 individuals, or several smaller groups which come together along the way


Data goes through processing & statistics to create
	Information gets synthesized to create
		Knowledge gets integrated into the political process to inform and enable
			Action which (hopefully) will result in
				Societal Benefit


	Program Assessment Rating Tool
		“The PART was developed to assess and improve program performance so that the Federal government can achieve better results. A PART review helps identify a program’s strengths and weaknesses to inform funding and management decisions aimed at making the program more effective.”
	The NOAA Ecosystem Matrix program will be “PART-ed” this year
		COP sits within Ecosystem Matrix, as does much of NMFS
		NMFS was “PART-ed” last year, with a rating of “adequate”


	Modeling advances
	Data
	Students
	Influence on future programs
	What will be the legacy of GLOBEC NWA?


	Data management (Wiebe plus many others)
	National conferences (Haidvogel, Batchelder, Werner)
	Pan-regional synthesis (Fogarty + regional Chairs)
	Book(s) (Ohman, Beardsley)
	Quantitative skill assessment (McGillicuddy, Brodeur)
	Ecosystem approaches to management (Murawski, Fogarty)


	“GLOBEC is designed to evaluate the likely consequences of changes in global climate and physics to the sustainability of animal production in the sea” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 11)
	“GLOBEC intends to vastly increase our understanding of the fundamental mechanistic processes that dictate
		The abundance of marine animals
		The fluctuations in their abundance, and
		The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate” (GLOBEC Report #1, page 20)


	“The challenge to all prospective investigators is to demonstrate convincingly that their work leads to a new level of understanding of the links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change” (GLOBEC Report #6, p 6)


	In situ growth rather than lateral exchange is the dominant process controlling the abundance of animals on the Bank;
	Seasonal density stratification over the S flank causes prey aggregation in the pycnocline and thus increased survival of predator populations;
	Temporal changes in mixing and stratification may control the abundance and spp. composition of phytoplankton which in turn may result in different rates of growth and production of herbivorous copepods in well-mixed, frontal, and stratified regions of the Bank;
	The occurrence of large, episodic exchanges of water and organisms on/off the Bank contributes to variability in popn abundances;
	Seasonal density stratification and the processes of turbulent mixing influence predator-prey encounter rates and thus the growth and survival of individual organisms;
	Predation rather than starvation is the dominant source of mortality of fish larvae; predation rather than advective loss is the dominant source of mortality of copepods.


	“The study is envisioned to begin in 1993, with major field experiments to be conducted in 1994, 1996, and 1998…In the intervening years, 1995 and 1997, less intensive broad-scale survey work should be conducted to monitor inter-annual variability” No mention of synthesis phase or further phases beyond field years.
	Funding began in 1993, field experiments in 1995, 1997, 1999. Decade of funding since program began.
	Total = $54 M over 11 years
		$10.5M for shiptime
		$4M per year 1993-1995 = $12M
		$3M in 1996 = $3M
		$4.5M per year 1997-2001 = $22.5M
		$2M per year 2002-2004 = $6M


	What do you know now about Georges Bank that you didn’t know 10 years ago?
		If you were to re-write the NWA Implementation Plan (GLOBEC Report #6) pp 6-24, what would be different?
		Georges Bank book?
		“State of Georges Bank” report?
	How will changing climate/NAO affect GB processes, structure, and function?
		The secondary production of ocean ecosystems in the context of a changing global climate


	98/99 recruitment
		98 copepods?
	Scotian Shelf crossovers
	Hydrographic interannual variability
	NAO shifts


	“In some ways we are more confused than ever, but we feel that we are confused on a higher level and about more important things”
	What questions would you now ask about Georges Bank/GoMe, that you couldn’t ask before GLOBEC?


	What are the dominant/controlling processes on Georges Bank?
	What larger (basin-scale) processes are at work to determine popn dyn and secondary production on GB?
	How would a climate signal propagate through the GB ecosystem?
		“links between the atmosphere, ocean physics, and population dynamics of marine organisms, in the context of climate change”


	Predictive capability
		What can you predict? On what time/space scales? With what uncertainty? Who will use these predictions? How will these predictions be used?
	Management uses
		What GLOBEC results are being used now in fisheries management? How has GLOBEC improved the management of living marine resources?
		Where, when and how often should future measurements be taken to capture important features of Georges Bank/GoMe? (tie-in with Ocean Observations)
	Technology development
		What GLOBEC technology is routinely used in NOAA operations now?


	In early GLOBEC years, Zack and Peter pounded the corridors of Congress drumming up support for the program
	In past COP crises, it was argued that some action/budget cut/reorganization would be devastating to GLOBEC
	Now, it’s time to show how support in Congress and saving COP funding has led to tremendous success in GLOBEC