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1	An Update on Bio-Physical Coupled Modeling Study for GLOBEC GB4B R. Ji Department of Biology Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Working with: PI team: Davis, Chen, Beardsley, Townsend, Durbin, Runge, Flagg UMASS-D modeling group: Q. Xu, G. Cowles, R. Tian, S. Hu, D. Stuebe Davis Lab: Q. Hu, C. Petrik NMFS: D. Mountain, J. Hare, M. Taylor
2	Status In last workshop … Completed 1995-1999 continuous run for FVCOM+NPZD; comparing data/model results Completed 1995 Pseudocalanus model run; using “stage with mean age” method; Testing different implementation of CPD Examining effect of freshening on phytoplankton dynamics (data analysis + numerical exp.) 1 ms. submitted to JMS + 1 ms. to be submitted to GRL + 1 new baby From last workshop to this one … Focus on CPD model experiments and analysis on model results for 1999 (ms in prep.) Completed freshening impact analysis (GRL + ICES) -> lead to NSF support to expand the work JMS ms in press + GRL ms in revision
3	Model structure
4	Conceptual Model
5	Observation
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8	Baseline Model Run (1999)
9	Baseline Model Run
10	Baseline Model Run
11	Baseline Model Run
12	Baseline Model Run
13	Baseline Model Run
14	Baseline Model Run
15	Baseline Model Run
16	Baseline Model Run
17	Baseline Model Run
18	Baseline Model Run
19	Baseline Run vs Food Limit
20	Baseline Run vs Food Limit
21	Baseline Run (Q10=6) vs Mortality (Q10=2)
22	Baseline Run vs Initiation only on GB
23	Baseline Run vs Initiation w/o GB
24	Mortality, Mortality, Mortality …
25	Baseline Run vs Mortality derived from Ohman et al.
26	Baseline Run vs Mortality derived from Ohman et al.
27	Summary Spatial- and temporal- dependent mortality rate play a key role in determining population dynamics of Pcal. Population from outside of the Bank (primarily wGoM) is an important source for GB Pcal population; GB population is unlikely to self-sustain. Both T and Phytoplankton co-varying with Pcal Population; The seasonality might be triggered primarily by temperature variation. Next step: Model other copepod species (need detailed vital rates and temporal/spatial distribution information)