An Update on Bio-Physical Coupled Modeling Study for GLOBEC GB4B

R. Ji
Department of Biology
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

Working with:
PI team: Davis, Chen, Beardsley, Townsend, Durbin, Runge, Flagg
UMASS-D modeling group: Q. Xu, G. Cowles, R. Tian, S. Hu, D. Stuebe
Davis Lab: Q. Hu, C. Petrik       NMFS: D. Mountain, J. Hare, M. Taylor

Status
In last workshop …
Completed 1995-1999 continuous run for FVCOM+NPZD; comparing data/model results
Completed 1995 Pseudocalanus model run; using “stage with mean age” method; Testing different implementation of CPD
Examining effect of freshening on phytoplankton dynamics (data analysis + numerical exp.)
1 ms. submitted to JMS + 1 ms. to be submitted to GRL + 1 new baby
From last workshop to this one …
Focus on CPD model experiments and analysis on model results for 1999 (ms in prep.)
Completed freshening impact analysis (GRL + ICES) -> lead to NSF support to expand the work
JMS ms in press + GRL ms in revision

Model structure

Conceptual Model

Observation

Slide 6

Slide 7

Baseline Model Run (1999)

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline
Model Run

Baseline Run



vs



Food Limit

Baseline Run



vs



Food Limit

Baseline Run
(Q10=6)


vs


Mortality
(Q10=2)

Baseline Run


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Initiation only
on GB

Baseline Run


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Initiation
w/o GB

Mortality, Mortality, Mortality …

Baseline Run



vs


Mortality
derived from Ohman et al.

Baseline Run



vs


Mortality
derived from Ohman et al.

Summary
Spatial- and temporal- dependent mortality rate play a key role in determining population dynamics of Pcal.
Population from outside of the Bank (primarily wGoM) is an important source for GB Pcal population; GB population is unlikely to self-sustain.
Both T and Phytoplankton co-varying with Pcal Population; The seasonality might be triggered primarily by temperature variation.
Next step: Model other copepod species (need detailed vital rates and temporal/spatial distribution information)