Impacts of Climate and Interannual variability on the seeding and distribution of Calanus finmarchicus in the Gulf of Maine and Georges Bank

North Atlantic Heat Flux

•The NCEP Climatology overestimates the Net Heat Loss for the North Atlantic Region due to overestimation of Latent and Sensible Heat Loss terms and underestimation of Shortwave Gain term.

•This overestimation is leading to spurious results in the Low NAO Model simulation.

•Functional regression is used resolve the overestimation in NCEP Climatology as follows:

•Slope (m) and Intercept (y) are determined for each month using the SOC and NCEP climatologies for 1980-1993 (High NAO)

•SOC(high NAO) = m*NCEP(high NAO) + y

•m and y are used to adjust the NCEP Climatology for 1958-1971 (Low NAO)

•Predicted NCEP (low NAO) = m*NCEP(low NAO) y, also

•Predicted NCEP (high NAO) = [SOC(high NAO)-y] / m