US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIa-CCS: Effects of Meso- and Basin-Scale Variability on Zooplankton Populations in the CCS using Data-Assimilative, Physical-Ecosystem Models
D. Haidvogel [Rutgers Univ.], T. Powell [Univ. Calif. Berkeley], E. Curchitser [Columbia Univ.], A. Hermann [NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory], J. Allen, G. Egbert, A. Kurapov, R. Miller [All at Oregon State University])

Project Summary

This is a request to the National Science Foundation to support an interdisciplinary research team from Rutgers University, Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, the NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Lab, Oregon State University and the University of California, Berkeley, to participate in the synthesis and modeling phase of the U.S. GLOBEC Northeast Pacific Program.

In particular, we propose a core modeling and data assimilation project that addresses larger GLOBEC program goals, as well as the more tightly focused aims of the Northeast Pacific (NEP) GLOBEC efforts in the California Current System (CCS). Our nested models encompass phenomena across the entire North Pacific basin-- e.g., ENSO and regime shift/PDO-linked features -- and incorporate variability over interannual to decadal time scales. The proposed studies are designed to elucidate mechanisms that determine how physical phenomena -- some caused by climatic features -- influence ecosystem processes. We will direct special attention to zooplankton, at both the individual population level (e.g., euphausiids), and at the aggregated community level. Lastly, our coupled models will employ advanced data assimilation (e.g., of the mesoscale surveys) to produce optimal merged data/model products for use by the GLOBEC NEP synthesis effort.

Specific project goals include:

• to use physical-ecosystem models to determine to what extent mesoscale variability is controlling ecosystem dynamics, especially zooplankton dynamics, in the CCS;
• to demonstrate how interannual and interdecadal variability, acting at all scales in the North Pacific, basin to regional, has impacted regional ecosystem structure;
• to initiate inter-regional synthesis within the entire NEP, leading to comparison between the California Current and Coastal Gulf of Alaska study areas;
• to implement and maintain an effective on-line data delivery system that offers access to simulated fields (both physical and ecological) within the NEP and CCS regions;
• to conduct modeling workshops to introduce GLOBEC investigators and other scientists to the GLOBEC datasets and to the modeling techniques being used to synthesize them; and
• to appraise the limitations of our present one-way nested modeling strategy, and to explore alternative options for conducting multi-scale simulations.

We will meet these goals, in part, by producing, analyzing and distributing coupled physical-ecosystem model products including: (i) dynamically consistent, data-assimilative hindcasts for the region and time of the CCS field experiments; and (ii) multi-decadal, basin-scale, nested calculations (1970-present) to explore interannual/interdecadal variabilities in physical fields and their associated ecosystem impacts.

Intellectual merit - We will: (i) quantify how physical features in the California Current System and variability related to climate change impact zooplankton biomass, production, distribution, and the retention and loss of zooplankton from coastal regions; and (ii) compare the impacts of climate variability and change (such as El Nino-La Nina cycles and regime shifts) on marine animal populations (euphausiids) in the CCS and CGOA. Both of these respond directly to stated goals of the GLOBEC NEP synthesis program.

Broader impacts - This project seeks to conduct a series of core physical/ecosystem model studies, encompassing a broad range of space and time scales, that will underpin the U.S. GLOBEC NEP synthesis effort. In addition, this project will afford the opportunity for multiple Ph.D. scientist and undergraduate students, working either directly with the PIs or by attendance at the proposed workshops, to participate in GLOBEC synthesis.

NSF Award Summary

The studies are designed to elucidate mechanisms that determine how physical features influence ecosystem processes. The investigators will develop nested models that encompass phenomena across the entire North Pacific basin -- e.g., ENSO and regime shift/PDO-linked features-- -- and incorporate variability over interannual to decadal time scales. They will direct special attention to zooplankton, at both the individual population level (e.g., euphausiids), and at the aggregated community level and employ advanced data assimilation (e.g., of the mesoscale surveys) to produce optimal merged data/model products for use by the GLOBEC NEP synthesis effort. The coupled physical-ecosystem model products will include dynamically consistent, data-assimilative hindcasts for the region and time of the CCS field experiments and multi-decadal, basin-scale, nested calculations (1970-present). With this research, the investigators seek to (i) quantify how physical features in the California Current System and variability related to climate change impact zooplankton biomass, production, distribution, and the retention and loss of zooplankton from coastal regions and (ii) compare the impacts of climate variability and change (such as El Nino-La Nina cycles and regime shifts) on marine animal populations (euphausiids) in the CCS and CGOA. Both of these respond directly to stated goals of the GLOBEC NEP synthesis program. In addition, this project will afford the opportunity for multiple Ph.D. scientists and undergraduate students, working either directly with the PIs or by attendance at the proposed workshops, to participate in GLOBEC synthesis.

This page was last updated on March 14, 2007.

Maintained by:
Hal Batchelder
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331-5503
phone: 541-737-4500; FAX 541-737-2064