US-GLOBEC NEP Phase IIIa-CCS: Juvenile Salmon Habitat Utilization in the Northern California Current-Synthesis and Prediction
E. Casillas [NOAA Northwest Fisheries Science Center], H. Batchelder [Oregon State University], W. Peterson, R. Brodeur, K. Jacobson [All at NOAA NWFSC]; Associated Investigators: T.Wainwright [NOAA NWFSC], G. Rau [Univ. of Calif. Santa Cruz], W. Pearcy, J. Fisher [Both at Oregon State University], D. Teel, B. Beckman [Both at NOAA NWFSC]

Project Summary

Proposed Activity and Intellectual Merit - The objectives of the proposed research are to 1) identify the physical and biological characteristics of the habitats of juvenile Chinook and coho salmon in the northern California Current, 2) develop a spatially explicit individual-based model that links salmon growth to habitat quality, 3) develop "salmon ocean habitat indices" to provide annual predictions of salmon stock abundance, and indicators of climate forced ecological changes that predict interannual variations in the survival of salmonids. We propose to test the following hypothesis: distribution and abundance (resource metrics), and growth and health characteristics (performance metrics) of juvenile Chinook and coho salmon during the first summer and early fall of ocean residence are affected by the interaction of physical and biological oceanographic processes which create and modulate their habitat in the California Current. We will combine and synthesize 12 years of data on the ecology of juvenile salmonids derived from a) the GLOBEC California Current studies in 2000 and 2002, b) Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) studies from 1998 through 2004, and c) the Pearcy studies of 1981-1985. Through an integrated synthesis, we will characterize what constitutes favorable habitat for juvenile salmon entering the coastal ocean, and where and when such habitat occurs, in terms of physical and biological features and processes. In addition, we will determine if Chinook and coho salmon juveniles respond similarly to changes in habitat characteristics caused by climatic forcing, and if we can hindcast and forecast their survival rates. We will develop spatially explicit individual-based models of salmon growth, survival, and behavioral response to heterogeneous environments, to investigate how cohort success (growth and survival) of juvenile salmon is influenced by ocean conditions (habitat temperature, prey availability, ocean transport) within the juvenile salmon coastal habitat and migration corridor. Moreover, taking advantage of the information provided by coded-wire tags and genetic analysis for identification of fish origin, habitat conditions will be described with respect to individual stocks or evolutionary units, a feature critical to management decisions. We anticipate these habitat characteristics can be related to meso- to regional-scale ocean features that can be used as an annual "salmon ocean habitat index" to provide near-term predictions of salmon stock abundance. By determining if any of these metrics of juveniles are different among years, or between regions of the Northeast Pacific, we will learn how climate variation has affected early marine growth and what might happen with future returns if trends in climate change continue.

Broader Impacts - This study is the first to attempt to define in detail the habitats of juvenile salmonids in coastal ocean waters of the Pacific Northwest. When completed, we will have a far better understanding of how environmental variability (coastal upwelling, El Niņo events, or regime shifts) and/or biological interactions (predator-prey relationships, diseases and parasites) affect the quality of the habitats in which salmon reside, and salmon growth and survival. Lacking understanding of how environmental variability might affect salmon habitat quality prevents us from forecasting (or hindcasting) salmon survival. Understanding how changing ocean conditions affects salmon growth and survival will allow us to better evaluate the chances of recovery of listed, threatened and endangered stocks of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest. This knowledge will be provided to resource managers so that harvest quotas for salmonid stocks can be set within the context of knowledge of variability in ocean conditions. Finally, we will be training one graduate student and involving undergraduate students as part of an REU program here in Newport at the Hatfield Marine Science Center.

NSF Award Summary

Understanding the effects of environmental variability on salmon habitat quality is important to evaluating salmon growth and survival of listed, threatened and endangered stocks of salmonids in the Pacific Northwest. The objectives of this research are to 1) identify the physical and biological characteristics of the habitats of juvenile Chinook and coho salmon in the northern California Current, 2) develop a spatially explicit individually-based model that links salmon growth to habitat quality, and 3) develop salmon ocean habitat indices to provide annual predictions of salmon stock abundance, and indicators of climate forced ecological changes that predict interannual variations in the survival of salmonids. The investigators will determine if distribution and abundance (resource metrics), and growth and health characteristics (performance metrics) of juvenile Chinook and coho salmon during the first summer and early fall of ocean residence are affected by the interaction of physical and biological oceanographic processes which create and modulate their habitat in the California Current. The investigators will combine and synthesize 12 years of data on the ecology of juvenile salmonids derived from a) the GLOBEC California Current studies in 2000 and 2002, b) Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) studies from 1998 through 2004, and c) the Pearcy studies of 1981-1985. The knowledge developed from this research will be provided to resource managers so that harvest quotas for salmonid stocks can be set within the context of knowledge of variability in ocean conditions. Training for a graduate student and involving undergraduate students as part of an REU program at the Hatfield Marine Science Center are incorporated into the project.

This page was last updated on March 14, 2007.

Maintained by:
Hal Batchelder
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331-5503
phone: 541-737-4500; FAX 541-737-2064