U.S.-GLOBEC: NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Synthesis of biophysical observations at multiple trophic levels using spatially nested, data-assimilating models of the coastal Gulf of Alaska
A. Hermann [University of Washington], P. Stabeno [NOAA Pacific Marine Env. Lab.], S. Hinckley [NOAA Alaska Fisheries Sci. Ctr.], E. DiLorenzo [Georgia Tech], P. Rand [The Wild Salmon Center], A. Moore [University of Colorado Boulder], T. Powell [Univ. California Berkeley]

Project Summary

We propose a core retrospective modeling and data assimilation project that addresses larger GLOBEC program goals, as well as the more tightly focused aims of the Northeast Pacific (NEP) GLOBEC program in the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA). The proposed studies are designed to elucidate mechanisms that influence the observed production at multiple trophic levels (phytoplankton, zooplankton, and pink salmon) in the CGOA. Our coupled models will employ advanced data assimilation techniques, to produce optimal merged data/model products, delivered online for use by the GLOBEC NEP-CGOA synthesis effort.

Specific project goals include: 1) Synthesis of GLOBEC-CGOA field data through explicit, adjoint based, 3D physical data assimilation into nested circulation models; 2) Application of these improved circulation fields to lower trophic level (NPZ) simulations which include salmon prey items; 3) Development of an adjoint version of the combined circulation-NPZ model, for formal exploration of the sensitivities of derived indices to forcing functions; 4) Production of physical, NPZ, and salmon hindcasts of years with significant interannual climate variability, delivered online for use by other GLOBEC synthesis research programs and models; 5) Production of circulation and prey fields for an Individual-Based Model of pink salmon; 6) Implementation of an Eulerian model of pink salmon with other NPZ components; 7) Assimilation of CGOA biological field data into 1D NPZ models with adjoint techniques; 8) Development of an NPZ model suitable for the Northeast Pacific, to examine spatial patterns of response to climate variability; 9) Visualization of Eulerian and Lagrangian model results with online, interactive, immersive display technologies. Intellectual Merit - The modeling activities proposed will: (i) quantify how physical features in the CGOA and variability related to climate change impact zooplankton biomass, production, distribution, and the retention and loss of zooplankton from coastal regions; (ii) quantify the impact of key coastal physical and biological processes, such as freshwater runoff and cross-shelf transport; and (iii) compare the impacts of climate variability and change (such as El Nino-La Nina cycles and regime shifts) on marine animal populations (pink salmon) in the CGOA. Each of these respond directly to stated goals of the GLOBEC NEP synthesis program.

Broader Impacts - This project seeks to conduct a series of core physical/ecosystem model studies of the CGOA, which will be central to U.S. GLOBEC NEP/CGOA synthesis effort. Proposed data assimilation and hindcast activities will also benefit: 1) NOAA's Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program, which is concerned with effective biophysical indices; 2) the Alaska Ocean Observing System (AOOS) program, as we explore data assimilation and sensitivity issues; 3) other Fisheries Oceanography programs in the CGOA which require accurate circulation and NPZ hindcasts for retrospective studies. Multiple Ph.D. scientists and students will participate in this GLOBEC synthesis project. We bring new expertise into the CGOA modeling effort, through Moore and Di Lorenzo's participation. We will provide excellent opportunities for educational outreach, using novel immersive visualization techniques to display 3D model results.

NSF Award Summary

None available.

This page was last updated on March 14, 2007.

Maintained by:
Hal Batchelder
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331-5503
phone: 541-737-4500; FAX 541-737-2064