U.S.-GLOBEC: NEP Phase IIIb-CGOA: Modeling the effects of spatial-temporal environmental variability on stage-specific growth and survival of pink salmon in the coastal Gulf of Alaska
D. Beauchamp, J. Armstrong, K. Myers [All at University of Washington], E. Cokelet [NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory], J. Moss [NOAA Alaska Fisheries Science Center]

Project Summary

Inter-annual differences in stage-specific survival and growth of pink salmon will be examined in relation to monthly differences in spatial distribution and spatial-temporal patterns in environmental conditions, food availability, diet, size, and growth. Physical and biological data will be combined in bioenergetics models to estimate consumption and growth efficiency of juvenile pink salmon among regions, months and years, and bioenergetic growth potential will be mapped among sampling sites, water masses and regions through time to mechanistically examine the growth and survival consequences of different spatial-temporal distribution patterns and how interannual differences in the biophysical environment contribute to differences in survival and production of pink salmon in CGOA. An Individually-Based Model (IBM) for pink salmon growth and distribution will vastly increase our capability to predict how distribution and growth dynamics of pink salmon should respond to spatial/temporal changes in the biophysical environment and will expand the vertical integration of physical and biological data and processes from allied GLOBEC NEP studies. The study objectives are:

  • Contribute to development of a comprehensive database of pink salmon distribution, size, growth, diet, and associated biophysical condition data.
  • Estimate useable measures of density and biomass of exploitable zooplankton taxa available to salmon.
  • Use scale growth patterns to estimate individual growth trajectories and determine the interannual variability in the magnitude of stage-specific, size-selective mortality for pink salmon from PWS hatcheries, and develop a size-based preseason forecast of marine survival.
  • Determine the interannual and monthly variation in diet composition of pink salmon among PWS and the different water masses in CGOA during July-October.
  • Use bioenergetics models to estimate monthly consumption and growth efficiency of the major cohorts of pink salmon during May-Sept, using scale-based growth trajectories.
  • Map inter-annual, monthly, and spatial variability in instantaneous growth potential for juvenile pink salmon at each sampling site in PWS and CGOA during July-August OCC and July-Sept/Oct Process and LTOP cruises (2001-2004).
  • Connect summer growth and distribution to older winter-summer life stages (distribution, size).

    Intellectual Merit - This work will advance from correlative to more mechanistic understanding of how physical and biological variability among different marine water masses in CGOA affect juvenile pink salmon growth (importance and interaction of temperature, prey availability, and prey quality) and the magnitude of subsequent size-selective mortality. This work will form the basis for linking growth performance and survival of a major planktivorous fish to the physical and lower trophic processes addressed by the network of GLOBEC-NEP investigators. PI Beauchamp will give an invited presentation on "Bioenergetic responses of Pacific Salmon to Climate and Ecosystem changes" Nov 2005 at the Joint PICES-NPAFC Symposium in Jeju, Republic of Korea.

    Broader Impacts - Results will be published in peer-reviewed journals, at conferences, SI meetings, a workshop in the 3rd year, and study exercises for a graduate-level energetics modeling class. Preseason forecasts of marine survival enable more effective-economical salmon harvest and management, benefiting local fishery communities and industry. This project promotes grad/postdoc training and broader participation by women and minorities in science. Preseason forecasts of marine survival enable more effective-economical salmon harvest and management, benefiting local fisheries-dependent communities, the fisheries industry, and regional economy of northern GOA and the Pacific Northwest.

    NSF Award Summary

    None available.

    This page was last updated on March 14, 2007.

    Maintained by:
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    College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
    Oregon State University
    Corvallis, OR 97331-5503
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