U.S. GLOBEC: Patterns, Sources and Mechanisms of Decadal-Scale Environmental
Variability in the Northeast Pacific: A Retrospective and Modeling Study
(Schwing, F. B. [NOAA Southwest Fisheries Science Center (SWFSC)], Monterey, G.
[SWFSC], Parrish, R. [SWFSC], Mendelssohn, R. [SWFSC], Murphee, T. [Naval Post-graduate School]) To
relate environmental variability to fluctuations in marine populations, we must
be able to describe how the environment varies in time and space; especially the
primary patterns, processes, sources, mechanisms, and scales of decadal
variability. We propose to examine decadal ocean variability in the Northeast
Pacific (NEP) using a state of the art numerical model, combined with a
retrospective analysis of atmospheric and oceanic observations using statistical
modeling techniques recently introduced to the area of climate research. Based on
our previous and ongoing modeling and retrospective work, we expect that we will
be able to identify the key environmental indicators that are likely to be
dynamical links, rather than simply correlations between changes in the
environment and fluctuations in marine populations. Although the principal
species of interest are salmon, our analyses will be directly applicable to a
number of other commercially important fish stocks, as well as ecologically
significant primary and secondary producers. We will emphasize decadal
variability, but will examine the relationship between decadal and interannual
(e.g., ENSO) scale phenomena.
Our studies will focus on the following questions: (1) What are the major
patterns of decadal change in oceanic fields and processes in the NEP?; (2) What
are the mechanisms leading to decadal oceanic change, and where do these changes
originate?; (3) How do basin-scale and local processes interact in the major
regions of the NEP (e.g., those defined in US GLOBEC [1994, 1996]) to produce the
oceanic responses observed in these regions?; (4) How do the seasonal cycles in
the different regions of the NEP vary on decadal scales?; and, (5) How are the
patterns, processes, and mechanisms of decadal change in the NEP similar to and
different from those operating on shorter (e.g., one to three year) scales?
This page was last updated on
March 15, 2007.
Maintained by:
Hal Batchelder
College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
Oregon State University
Corvallis, OR 97331-5503
phone: 541-737-4500; FAX 541-737-2064