Milestones

Year 1:
 ? Develop idealized 1 and 2D models of surface stratification in GOM and SF, including interannual variability of surface heat flux and horizontal salinity fluxes. 
? Begin work on 0 and 1D biological models of spring blooms in GOM and SF.
? Examine influence of seasonal mixed layer dynamics on NPZ models.
? Run 3D physical-NPZ model through winter-spring stratification. Begin experimenting with forcing representing different years.
? Begin formulating new ecosystem model, collate existing data.
? Begin particle tracking in 3D FVCOM runs, and physical validation of particle tracks.
? Develop IBM population dynamics models for all 4 species. 
? Investigate zero-dimensional IBM models for different subregions using average observed ranges in food, temperature and advective fluxes, and incorporating results from physical, particle tracking and ecosystem model. Conduct process and sensitivity studies for food limitation, temperature, and predation. Quantify range in uncertainty of relative importance of different factors based on limited information in biological response.
? Analyze survey and vital rates data for the target species for integration into modeling efforts.
? Write software for model data sharing between physicists and biologists.

Year 2: 
? Begin analysis of surface Lagrangian particle tracks.  Explore wind-driven flows in GOM/GB.
? Study how interannual variability in forcing changes transport of particles from GOM to GB and off of GB. 
? Begin to integrate particle tracks with biological data and IBM models. Compare changes in advective pathways to changes in species composition on bank. 
? Implement new ecosystem models in 3D physical models with seasonal and annual cycles. Explore interannual signal.
? Interact with other GLOBEC PIs to exploit model platform.
? Continue analysis of survey and vital rates data for the target species for integration into modeling efforts.
? Extended IBM's to 1D models to include vertical variation in environmental conditions using results from physical model (temperature & stratification/turbulence), particle tracking (advective fluxes), ecosystem modeling (food fields), and introducing more detailed representations of zooplankton behavior and/or grazing (e.g., multiple prey types).

Year 3: 
? Analyze particle tracks in deep basins.  Quantify exchanges between basins and from slope water to basins, and modulation of these transfers by variability in forcing.  Compare to (scant) existing data.  Do results agree with MARMAP and other data?  With the results of broadscale survey data? Compare results with biological data and integrate with IBM's.
? Refinement of yr 2 IBM work with emphasis on simulations of observed abundance for specific years, and explanations of observed species' differences.  Merge IBM's with full 3D particle tracks from model.
? Continue testing, exploration of 3D physical-ecosystem models. Compare model output to data from specific years of forcing. Continue to acquire data to initialize and test the coupled models. 
? Begin coupling of physical-ecosystem-IBM models. Carry out experiments to test physical vs. biological dynamics in creating observed patterns.
? Begin work on publication of major new synthesis. 

Year 4: 
? Intensive synthesis of results.  Use understanding of links between climate and local forcing and local forcing and biology to illuminate some local effects of climate change on biological and physical dynamics.
? Study coupled physical-ecosystem-IBM models in seasonal, annual cycles.
? Submit coordinated publications of synthesis to special issue of journal, or new monograph.

All years:
? Collate and synthesize data.