## Relationships With Other Programs and Initiatives

The complexity and breadth of the issues surrounding problems in the area of global change are so great that interface with other related programs, especially those assessing other global change issues, is critically important to foster and maintain. Members of the GLOBEC steering committee serve as liaisons to other large initiatives as one means of promoting these interactions and exchanges of information on both planning and issues of science.

GLOBEC is expected to have ties to a number of national and international efforts currently underway or in the planning stages. These range from the various ongoing activities of organizations such as ICES down to investigators planning for possible coastal initiatives such as the CoOP group. Of special relevance is the interrelationship of GLOBEC to its sister programs within NSF, WOCE and JGOFS. On the NOAA side it is expected that various components of the Global Climate Change Program will provide important background support for GLOBEC activities. Finally, there is the issue of GLOBEC's part in international programs such as IGBP (International Geosphere Biosphere Program).

### U.S. Programs

#### WOCE - World Ocean Circulation Experiment

In response to the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) goal concerning the prediction of climate changes over periods of decades, the SCOR and IOC Committee on Climatic Changes and the Ocean (CCCO) established a group to plan a World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE). After over a half decade of planning WOCE is at the point of beginning its field phase. Efforts as part of WOCE are aimed at 1) developing models useful for predicting climate change and collecting the data necessary to test these models, and 2) determining the representativeness of the specific WOCE data sets for the long-term behavior of the ocean, and to find methods for determining long-term changes in the ocean circulation. To address these goals WOCE has been divided into three core projects covering a global description of the ocean circulation (Core Project 1), the Southern Ocean (Core Project 2), and the Gyre Dynamics Experiment (Core Project 3). A full description of the WOCE scientific background and initial plans can be found in the World Ocean Circulation Experiment Implementation Plan (WOCE 1988a, 1988b).

The U.S. commitment to the WOCE program consists of contributions to the global one-time survey, current meter arrays to monitor several key locations, portions of a global array of surface drifters and mid-level floats, and part of the efforts such as ship-of-opportunity and sea level measurement. There has also been an effort to develop a community model. It is expected that the results of WOCE will be relevant in general to the overall GLOBEC effort although it is difficult to picture extensive cooperative field programs. The global surface drifter program is of potential interest in relationship to the drift of organisms, but is likely to require augmentation to improve its nominal 500 km coverage if one wants to consider the details of the effects of drift in more localized regions. GLOBEC should keep informed on WOCE planning in order to identify areas of mutual interest.

#### JGOFS - Joint Global Ocean Flux Study

The primary goal of JGOFS is to quantify the vertical carbon flux that results from oceanic chemical and biological uptakes of CO2. In particular, JGOFS wishes to quantify how much of the production which occurs in the upper ocean is due to new nitrate vs. the magnitude of the total primary production and its role in the global carbon budget. The biologically mediated C02 uptake and vertical carbon transports are dependent on a complex, ill understood, coupled physical, chemical, and biological system. JGOFS is a balanced mix of process studies, large scale ship and satellite surveys, time-series observations, models, and data base activities predicated on improved documentation of the ocean carbon cycle and budget and predictive models to understand oceanic response to change. Such models will form the basis for assessments of how the ocean carbon system is affected by increasing atmospheric C02 concentration and its impact on such increases. JGOFS forms a natural substrate for GLOBEC since it must document the physical, chemical, and biological parameters for oceanic primary production.

GLOBEC in contrast to JGOFS is concerned with developing an understanding of what controls the biotic population dynamics in the sea. Fluxes of materials such as carbon and nitrogen through the upper ocean are controlled and mediated by the biological populations and their production dynamics. Consequently, GLOBEC has the potential to contribute to JGOFS an appreciation of the degree to which it is necessary to understand the ecosystem composition and dynamics to be able to appreciate the variations in fluxes of biologically active materials, especially carbon and nitrogen, and to be able to make accurate predictions and generalizations. Mass fluxes of these bioactive materials in the sea are catalyzed by ecosystem dynamics. GLOBEC can help assess the degree to which global change will alter fluxes by creating major changes in the ecosystem dynamics that help determine those fluxes.

#### TOGA - Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Program

The Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program is currently heavily focused in the Pacific. TOGA planning calls for extensive work as part of COARE (Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment) in the Western Pacific in the 1991-94 time frame. Efforts to follow this field work are currently under discussion. TOGA provides global climate modeling resources of relevance to GLOBEC aims. The possibility of eventual cooperation in the field should be pursued as planning for both programs continues.

#### GCCP - Global Climate Change Program

NOAA has launched an effort to explicitly consider the evidence for and the dynamics of global climate change. The initiative includes global efforts such as climate models and data networks along with regional efforts to understand climate change in various sectors of the globe such as the Atlantic. GLOBEC has a fundamental interest in this effort in relationship to planning field programs. Of particular importance is a timely identification of the aspects of climate change that are likely to be of major relevance to the marine systems GLOBEC proposes to investigate. GLOBEC and the Global Climate Change initiative have similar concerns in understanding historical variations in marine communities and populations. The efforts of the Global Climate Change initiative to improve historical data bases and to understand the manifestations of time dependence with the help of diagnostic and model computations are important to GLOBEC as well. GLOBEC should also remain aware of specific monitoring efforts planned as part of NOAA Global Change and their relevance to plans for GLOBEC efforts.

#### ACCP - Atlantic Climate Change Program

The NOAA Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP) can be expected to provide considerable support in terms of large scale data analysis to interpret climate signals. The ACCP monitoring work to follow climatic variations through the 1990's and the development of models with the explicit goal of better simulations of climate variations in the Atlantic will be of use to GLOBEC planning. An effort as part of ACCP to provide a higher resolution geological record for the Northern Atlantic is also relevant to GLOBEC goals.

#### LMER - Land Margin Ecosystem Research Program

The Land Margin Ecosystem Research Program (LMER) is designed to address questions of how coastal terrestrial ecosystems influence estuarine aquatic ecosystems. This program is involved in evaluation of the ecological impacts of alternative land use practices in the watersheds on the flux, fate, transport, and transformation of materials moving from land into the estuaries. As such, it requires strong contributions from biogeochemistry, hydrology, sedimentology, and ecology. The program is fundamentally two-pronged. One thrust is to measure the fluxes of materials as a function of variation in the land use of the terrestrial systems. The second thrust is to understand the consequences of those fluxes on the sedimentology, biogeochemistry, and especially the ecological processes and systems.

The LMER program has obvious relevance to GLOBEC. To the degree that LMER studies are successful in demonstrating what changing materials inputs can be reliably associated with the conversion of natural terrestrial ecosystems into agricultural, suburban, and urban landscapes, GLOBEC can utilize this information as one form of global change and can consider its impacts on animal abundance and production in the sea. Two of the members of the GLOBEC steering committee helped draft the document that defines the LMER objectives and program elements, so the inter-connections between GLOBEC and LMER are strong.

#### CoOP - Coastal Ocean Processes Program

The Coastal Ocean Processes Program (CoOP) is an interdisciplinary oceanographic research program designed to study the oceanography of coastal oceans. This program is based on the premise that inadequate attention has been devoted in the past to study of coastal ocean processes. Several processes are especially critical to understand in the coastal zone, including the role of physical dynamics and fluid motions on transport and fates of sediments on the continental margins and on recruitment of important biological species in this highly productive yet anthropogenically altered zone of the oceans.

CoOP has a fundamental overlap with GLOBEC interests in the coastal zone. The enhanced study of physical transfers and transport processes on the continental margin will contribute directly to solving problems articulated by this GLOBEC science plan. The two initiatives do have fundamental differences as well. GLOBEC includes an open ocean as well as a coastal prerogative, and GLOBEC is oriented around the problems of global change whereas CoOP need not be. CoOP also contains a much greater emphasis on geochemistry and sedimentology. Nevertheless, it is clear that close collaboration is needed between these two initiatives and some joint exercises may even be warranted. One member of the GLOBEC steering committee also serves on the present CoOP steering committee to facilitate such collaborations and exchanges.

### International Programs

On the broader scale the GLOBEC Georges Bank initiative is part of a Pan-Atlantic effort to understand the interrelation between gadid stocks and climate change. An ICES working group on Cod and Climate Change (CCC) is presently in the process of completing an initial study plan which includes a large planning meeting to be held in Hamburg in early 1991. The basic idea behind this planning process is to stimulate an international effort to understand the impact of climate variability on cod stocks throughout the Atlantic. Of particular interest are the various responses in relationship to climate variations in different regions of the cod's range. Differences in the regional data bases available for addressing the question of cod and climate make inter-regional comparisons a high priority. For example, spawning, egg, and larvae distributions are much better known for the Arcto-Norwegian cod suggesting that some progress might be made in test simulations using regional physical models. The knowledge gained from such an exercise will in turn be useful for future attempts to simulate distributions on Georges Bank. Other areas of particular mutual interest between scientists studying the various cod stocks involve differences in genetics and cod physiology throughout their range. A combination of genetic, physiology, and paleobiology work should provide important information on the long term interrelationship between cod and climate.

Another international science working group of interest in the context of GLOBEC is a new SCOR working group on pelagic biogeography. This newly constituted effort is interested in understanding the factors the govern the range of various species in the marine environment. The working group and personnel involved in planning work as part of GLOBEC in the North Atlantic should exchange ideas and plans.

International aspects of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) are apt to provide data sets on the variation in conditions in the North Atlantic throughout the period of the envisioned GLOBEC work. In particular, Canadian and United Kingdom work in the subpolar Atlantic should provide data sets that address the nature of the oceans response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A Nordic country effort at the Greenland-Iceland-Scotland sills will also provide important information in this context.

OPEN and NCSP - GLOBEC activities in the North Atlantic will be carefully coordinated with the Canadian efforts to understand their fisheries and the massive changes they are undergoing. The status of cod stocks has recently been reviewed by Harris (1990) in a report that is one of several pieces of evidence to the concern in Canada for the status of the cod fisheries. In response to these concerns the national government, local provincial governments, and industry have combined to fund a massive effort to better understand the ecosystem of maritime Canada and its fisheries.

One of these efforts is the Ocean Production Enhancement Network (OPEN) which is a four year program focusing on cod and scallops. Field work aimed at addressing the recruitment problem on Sable Island Bank, scallop distributions, growth and survival in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and migration in the Labrador/Northern Newfoundland region will be complemented with laboratory, data analysis, and modeling studies as part of this $23M program. The program is outlined in a 115 page overview document (available from Prof. William Leggett of McGill University). The OPEN effort provides a wealth of opportunities for collaboration and with its data from alternative field sites provides excellent comparative data bases which complement the envisioned U.S. Georges Bank work. GLOBEC planning needs to be carefully coordinated with that of OPEN and should allow funding for active cooperation between Canadian and U.S. scientists.

Another program centered out of Newfoundland is the Northern Cod Science Package (NCSP). It is aimed at a fuller understanding of the oldest continuously exploited cod stock in the western hemisphere. The $43M program will focus on fisheries oceanography and predator-prey dynamics off Northern Newfoundland and the Labrador coast. Again, there is the opportunity for collaborative work on a range of issues. Of particular interest is the long time-series data and attempts on the part of programs like NOAAs ACCP to reconstruct and understand the physical mechanisms behind climate change in the subpolar regions.

Nova Scotian region efforts include ongoing programs on the Scotian Shelf, Gulf of Maine, and Georges Bank. Efforts such as the 1982-89 southwest Nova Scotia Fisheries Ecology Program (Smith et al., 1989) which focused on the Brown's Bank region provides many lessons for use in GLOBEC planning. Future cooperative field work should be strongly encouraged with an emphasis on interactions between U.S. and Canadian scientists.