USGLOBEC SSC Meeting: 10/00

Minutes of the U.S. GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee Meeting,
National Academy of Sciences J. Eric Jonsson Conference Center, Woods Hole, MA - 12 & 13 October, 2000

DAY ONE (Thursday, 12 October, 2000):

The semi-annual meeting of the U.S. GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee (SSC) was held in Woods Hole, MA, at the National Academy of Sciences J. Eric Jonsson Conference Center on Thursday and Friday, 12-13 October 2000 (the SSC Executive Committee met at the center on Wednesday, 11 October 2000).

Michael Fogarty, chairperson of the SSC, called the meeting to order at 08:35. SSC members attending were: David Ainley, Robert Beardsley, Larry Crowder, Michael Dagg, Arnold Gordon, Dale Haidvogel, Eileen Hofmann, Anne Hollowed, Yochanan Kushnir, Gregory Lough, Nathan Mantua, Mark Ohman, Julia Parrish, William Peterson, and Peter Wiebe (ex-officio). Others in attendance included Hal Batchelder, Liz Clarke, Kendra Daly, David Johnson, Linda Lagle, Phillip Taylor, and Elizabeth Turner. Guests in attendance were Bronwyn Cahill, Cynthia Decker, Andy Rosenberg, Cindy Tynan, and Cisco Werner, along with the head of the US GLOBEC office, Manuel Barange.

Following the welcome and introduction of new members, Fogarty gave an overview of the role of the SSC, including both strategic and tactical components. He presented the current meeting structure and format, which includes both presentations designed to provide necessary background information for future decisions, and action-oriented items for decision-making at the meeting. There was a general discussion on how to weigh the balance of activities to provide the most productive approach to meeting the obligations of the committee. Changing the frequency of SSC meetings, adding additional committee workshops throughout the year, and other options were considered. It was ultimately decided that the SSC would continue to meet twice a year. These meetings will be restructured to allow for a workshop format as appropriate to address specific needs and responsibilities.

Georges Bank Program:

Wiebe, Lough, and Beardsley next made presentations on the status of the Georges Bank NW Atlantic program. Wiebe provided a broad overview of the three phases of the program now completed (focusing on process-oriented studies) during (1) 1995 -- stratification, (2) 1997 -- retention and loss, and (3) 1999 -- cross-frontal exchange. Broad-scale surveys were conducted in each process year and in intervening years to provide a context for the process studies. The three phases of the program to date have involved about 25 different institutions and 70 scientific investigators, including Canadian participants.

Lough next described the current status of the target species: cod and haddock. Restrictive management measures put in place in 1994 have resulted in an increase in spawning stock biomass for both species. Haddock experienced a strong year class in 1998 relative to recent patterns in the stocks, and a relatively strong year class in 1999. Recruitment remains below the historical average, however, for the period prior to the decline in haddock abundance. In the recent past, haddock exhibited stronger recruitment for the 1975 and 1978 year classes. Cod has not yet shown a recruitment response to the decrease in exploitation and increase in spawning biomass. A key issue is whether we can link changes in environmental conditions to the increase in haddock recruitment in 1998.

Lough also presented estimates of mortality for cod larvae based on broad-scale survey results. Indications of shifts in peak spawning are evident on an interannual basis. There is a 10-20% per day mortality rate and within three weeks, less than 10% of the total remain.

Bioenergetic models for cod and haddock incorporating larval behavior and environment effects, as well as climatological conditions, have been developed, and are being used to integrate information from broad-scale cruises and process studies. Ultimately, the objective is to track a cohort during the egg and larval stages under different flow field conditions using individual-based models.

Wiebe then followed-up with a discussion of the mini-workshops the GB program has held. Workshops held to date include ones on Vital Rates; TransAtlantic Studies of Shelf Ecosystem Responses to Climate Variability and Change; Slope Water Interaction; Kriging and Objective Mapping; Cross-frontal Exchange; Scotian Shelf Crossovers; and Broad-scale Data Coordination.

Bob Beardsley presented recent results on intrusion events. Intrusions of slope water have been recorded at moorings in three out of the five years of the broad-scale program. He then gave a brief overview of the "Workshop on Vertical Mixing in the Coastal Ocean" that was held in Oregon in April 2000 to address issues surrounding the parameterization of hydrodynamic models with respect to mixing processes.

A dedicated issue of Deep Sea Research is in press highlighting results of the Georges Bank program; another dedicated issue will be published in 2001 in JGR Oceans.

Wiebe concluded the session on Georges Bank by leading a discussion of the upcoming Synthesis Phase. The draft AO has a due date of May 1, 2001 for proposals. Synthesis is needed across the whole of the NW Atlantic, and a key issue is how synthesis on GB relates to other groups such as TASC. Collaboration will be essential to extract the broader lessons of the effects of climate change on marine populations.

The Phase IV AO addresses issues in data integration at several levels:

- Synthesis of data sets deriving from broad-scale and process-oriented studies;
- Incorporation of these into physical and biological models;
- Synthesis with data and analyses from Canadian "upstream" studies;
- Basin-scale syntheses and analysis.

  Southern Ocean Program:

  Following a brief break, Eileen Hofmann updated the SSC on GLOBEC’s Southern Ocean program. Ship availability remains an issue for the field portion of the Southern Ocean program. As of now, the U.S. is scheduled to have field cruises in April-May and July-August of 2001. In year 2002 it will be Mar-April and July-August. Korea, Spain and Peru may run GLOBEC-like cruises. Both the Palmer and the Gould will be available in 2001. Only the Gould will be available in 2002 under current scheduling. Hofmann is currently seeking other ship options in talks with Argentina, Chile, and Brazil which all operate icebreakers.

  The SO program focus is on Antarctic krill, it’s habitat and environment, food, predator-prey relationships, and competitors. The study site focuses on the area around Marguerite Bay of the West Antarctic Peninsula region. The US effort will occur during austral winter. Other nations will also have study sites on the east coast at 70 degrees east. Additional sites will be encouraged and the program will make use of ships of opportunity. It was noted that a possible gyre-type retentive feature is evident in ADCP data at the study site, affording potential comparisons with retentive systems at the Georges Bank site and the Hecate Bank off Oregon.

  Hofmann noted that a large krill population occurs on the central portion of the Peninsula Shelf. The shelf circulation retains the krill and the persistent winter ice cover provides important habitat and feeding locations. The goal is to have moorings deployed at the end of the Austral Summer 2001, undertake tagging of penguins and seals, and take Lagrangian measurements with floats and drifters. The Palmer cruise will handle large-scale surveys closely tied to the process sites, and the Gould will undertake process studies within the sites following a grid pattern (the degree of ice cover encountered will affect actual coverage).

  Coordination with the IWC is progressing. Observers may be placed on the ships. Debbie Thiele is coordinating the observer effort.

  NSF has agreed to fund the US Coordinating Office for the SO Program at Old Dominion University. Julie Morgan is the staff person along with Eileen Hofmann. They have submitted a proposal for data management of SO. This will be done through WHOI and be available through the GLOBEC web site. International data will reside at the Alfred Wegner site.

  Fogarty then brought the committee up to date on the status of the National Coordinating Office, and its transition to a permanent home at WHOI for the duration of the program. He has submitted a 5-year proposal to NSF in which the data management office function is moved into the national office.

  The new office and staffing configurations for the Coordinating Office are:

  - Data Management Function:
    - Peter Wiebe, senior scientist - equivalent of 1 month / year
    - Bob Groman, information specialist - 9-12 months / year
    - Research Assistant - 4 months / year
  - Program & Office Management:
    - SSC chair - 3 months / year
    - Center Administrator (currently the program coordinator position) - 12 months / year
    - Staff Assistant (position currently with the GB program at WHOI) - 1.5 months / year

  - SSC Research Functions:
    - Research Associate - 12 months / year

  - SSC members

  - SSC sub-committees

  Science Talks:

  Following lunch, the SSC heard two Science Talks by new members. The first was presented by Larry Crowder of the Duke University Marine Lab. Crowder gave an overview of the SABRE Project and its goal to understand the relationship between variation in environmental factors and variable recruitment of estuarine dependent fishes of the South Atlantic Bight with a focus on Menhaden. Processes studied include: tidal exchange; larval transports; frontal dynamics; inlet hydrodynamics; and retention of larvae. Biological processes include spawning; orientation behavior / transport; inlet passage; growth rates / birthdates; predation; and life-history population models. The research is focused on the Oregon, Oracoke, and Beaufort inlets. Along-shelf - not cross-shelf - transport is the critical issue, as there are multiple factors affecting habitat for estuarine-dependent species, including physical factors, pollutants, biological factors, and fishing & its effects. Larry closed his presentation by noting the following:

  > "Where there’s water there are fish. If we care for the water, we care for the fish. The sea begins in the mountains" ....

  Yochanan Kushnir of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University gave an overview of his research concerning the interaction between the ocean and climate, including mechanisms that govern sea surface temperatures and the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The exact relationship and interaction between the ocean and atmospheric pressure systems is still unknown. The NAO is not strongly influenced by ENSO. There was indication of a weak incident in the spring season, but nothing long lasting.

  Northeast Pacific Program:

  Next on the agenda was a presentation by Hal Batchelder representing the NEP GLOBEC office. He presented a review of the projects funded to date. In June 2000, the NEP office relocated to Oregon State University in Corvallis; Linda Hunn was hired as the office assistant. To date, there is a seven member executive committee. These are the people most involved in the CalCurrent program. Members will be added from the CGOA funded projects. A PI meeting will be held November 12-14, 2000.

  The NEP group then gave summaries and overviews of the project to date, including the work of Jack Barth and the second meso-scale cruise. Bill Peterson also presented updates on the zooplankton sampling. Coho and Chinook were sampled in late May and compared with the July / August samples. Most of the samples were taken at or south of Cape Blanco. Charts were kept of the catch in all trawls. Possible interpretations of the findings are:

  - A regime shift in 2000
  - Continuation of the 1999 La Niña
  - Global warming in Bakun sense
  - Temporary end of a warming period that began in 1989

  David Ainley then presented what was found in the top trophic level studies and the biomass of seabirds. During upwelling events, a stratification in the distribution of seabirds is observed. Close to shore are the common murres; just offshore are the auklets; and further out are the shearwaters. This sorting by species seems to be related to prey distribution and availability.

  Hal concluded the presentation by discussing the various challenges and successes of the program.

  Challenges included:

  - Coordinating a multi-ship operation requires a better combination of tasks and ships
  - Need more convenient staging / departure ports
  - Moorings suffered instrumentation failures and retrieval problems
  - 2001 LTOP samplings show a gap during the spring transition season
  - Scheduled cruise in March is actually too early - should be April

  Successes included:

  - Ability to get detailed data sets
  - July LTOP helped plan second meso-scale cruise
  - Scripps ship Operations responded favorably to concerns from first and second cruises

  ACTION ITEM: Hal is to keep SSC apprised of ships and schedules - a move to April is preferred.

  Funded projects submitted for the CGOA-AO were discussed next:

  1. LTOP: The Fairbanks group will do physical and biological measurements. The panel suggested adding an along-shelf component and a technology component.
  2. Moorings: Phyllis Stabeno is leading this study which includes year-long deployments.
  3. Large-scale physical / biological measurements: Cross-shelf and out into the slope. Focus is on salmon and zooplankton physical information.
  4. Zooplankton: Includes LTOP, process cruises, retrospective of zooplankton and climate regime shifts.
  5. Fish component: Physical measurements, growth and scale archive growth.
  6. Modeling: Nested circulation models and atmosphere-ocean modeling.

  In 2000-2002 there will be seven LTOP cruise trips per year. Each trip will be nine days. In 2001-2003 the process zooplankton group will be out in March, May and July. During July there will also be fish surveys.

  Concern: No meso-scale survey in the program. One proposal was submitted that the panel didn’t approve for funding. Also no euphausiids study for the same reason. And, top predators are missing. This leads to something other than what was originally envisioned for the program.

  ACTION ITEM: PIs from the CGOA are to get together to discuss their plans and how to deal with the missing parts. Hal is to notify the SSC of the PI meeting and the results.

  Next, Fogarty opened the floor to discussion about SSC membership. Hollowed, Stabeno, and Lough will be rotating off, and the Executive Committee discussed the overall makeup of membership as it relates to key areas. The three key areas soon to open include Integration / Synthesis; Fish Population Dynamics; and Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamics. Hollowed, while not on the SSC, will remain involved via the Comparative Analysis Committee. Mantua has agreed to serve a second term, and Beardsley and Fogarty must stand for re-election as indicated in the by-laws.

  The floor was then opened for the SSC to suggest candidates for each of the three areas. Fogarty will talk with the suggested candidates to gauge their interest.

  ACTION ITEM: SSC members are to think about other individuals and send any further contributions to Fogarty by e-mail. Fogarty will discuss with Powell the benefits of his remaining as an ex-officio member of the SSC.

  GB Phase IV AO. Turner updated the committee on the status of the AO, and informed them of the 1 May proposal due date. She raised the issue of adding a paragraph to the AO that deals with publication for the NOAA-COP Decision Analysis Series. She distributed the suggested paragraph.

  ACTION ITEM: SSC to be polled via e-mail in regard to this addition. Also, David Johnson will send a sample of a publication to the committee members following the meeting.

  The final item of business was a general discussion of a special issue of Oceanography dedicated to U.S. GLOBEC. Fogarty passed around the suggested table of contents. Target date is Fall 2001.

  The meeting was adjourned at 17:45.

  DAY TWO (Friday, 13 October, 2000):

  SSC Chairperson Michael Fogarty called the meeting to order at 08:35

  SSC members attending were: David Ainley, Robert Beardsley, Larry Crowder, Michael Dagg, Arnold Gordon, Dale Haidvogel, Eileen Hofmann, Anne Hollowed, Yochanan Kushnir, Gregory Lough, Nathan Mantua, Mark Ohman, Julia Parrish, William Peterson, and Peter Wiebe (ex-officio). Others in attendance included Hal Batchelder, Liz Clarke, Kendra Daly, David Johnson, Linda Lagle, Phillip Taylor, and Elizabeth Turner. Guests in attendance were Bronwyn Cahill, Cynthia Decker, Andy Rosenberg, Brian Rothschild, Michael Sissenwine, John Steele, Cindy Tynan, and Cisco Werner.

  The first order of business was to thank Kendra Daly for her outstanding guidance and support on behalf of the U.S. GLOBEC program. She is leaving NSF to join the faculty at Florida Southern University in St. Petersburg. The group presented Kendra with the companion book to the National Geographic exhibit about Ernest Shackleton and "The Antarctic Challenge" as a special thanks and in recognition of her own research interests.

  The morning’s opening session focused on GLOBEC’s next steps and follow-on program planning. To do this properly, a broad overview of the history of various programs was presented to the SSC. John Steele started things off with a review of support level funding from NSF during the ten-year period of 1984-1994. He showed the group that it is was a "zero sum game," as all programs were putatively linked together. In practice, the programs became de-coupled in time.

  Steele went on to present observations on the issues under consideration as JGOFS successor programs are considered. An interest in considering fisheries-related problems in the context of the follow-on programs has been raised. He also discussed possible areas of focus for follow-on GLOBEC studies, including consideration of energy flow and utilization in marine ecosystems as affected by climate change.

  Next, Brian Rothschild reviewed the GLOBEC approach as it has evolved including consideration of:

  - Physical-biological linkages
  - Populations and ecosystem dynamics
  - Construction of physical and biological models
  - Study sites for field programs
  - Mechanisms and Processes
  - Development of new technologies and an optimistic prognosis for success

  He concluded that there is much to be done relative to the initial science plan and that there is still a need to better understand both global forcing and multi-scale issues.

  ICES Cod and Climate Change Program:

  Mike Sissenwine and Mike Dagg talked next about comparative studies and their experience in the ICES Cod and Climate Change program. Dagg suggested that future directions should include a broader ecosystem approach, including considerations such as the role of the microbial loop in production dynamics. He suggested GLOBEC also be cognizant of integrating across space and time scales.

  Following a break, the SSC the moved onto committee reports. Fogarty reminded the SSC that the membership and committee structure of the SSC was set up to explore the connections among atmospheric forcing, ocean dynamics and biological response. The coupling between specific physical and biological features sets the tone for issues to be resolved in terms of a climate connection. This offers possibilities for comparative analysis. Retrospective studies and modeling allows GLOBEC to bridge the space and time scales in order to synthesize information across different processes and to pull them together.

  Climate Committee:

  Nate Mantua presented the Climate Committee report. He first discussed the goal of the committee - to develop a blueprint for connecting GLOBEC studies conducted at particular time and space scales to climate-scale events. The physical forcing issues will be looked at with a local view by region. Some of the questions to be covered include whether key environmental parameters have been identified for the study area, and if they’re the same for different species. Key questions in the large-scale context will take a look at whether the empirical evidence suggests a connection between large-scale patterns of climate variability and the environments of interest. And, do we understand this? Why or why not?

  For each region, they will see if they can deliver a local / regional composite view of key parameters for the study regions, given the basin-scale climate states.

  When looking at GLOBEC modeling targets they have to consider the physical models. Can they faithfully reproduce import features? Can the models reproduce the mean conditions as well as the variability? Other issues surround biological modeling targets and ecosystem impact assessments.

  The committee will assess the adequacy of the GLOBEC toolbox for making ecosystem predictions, seeking to provide a foundation for more formal contribution to studies.

  ACTION ITEM: Nate to get lists of contributing authors for the specific documents.

  Goals:

  - January 2001 - first assessment paper
  - January 2005 - second assessment paper

  Synthesis and Comparative Analysis Committee:

  Fogarty presented the information for the Synthesis and Comparative Analysis Committee, defining the goal as the development of strategies for synthesis and integration of GLOBEC regional studies. Activities for this committee include the following:

  - Find ways to integrate process-oriented, broad-scale, meso-scale, and retrospective studies in conceptual and mathematical models
  - Develop predictions of ecosystem to climate change variability
  - Synthesis should be within US GLOBEC study locations and the program as a whole

  The Comparative Analysis portion is looking to:

  - Extract broader lessons of ecosystem responses to climate change and variability
  - Compare across systems and system types
  - Compare across taxa

  Comparative analysis with other GLOBEC or GLOBEC-like studies will afford additional opportunities. For example, studies of gadid and copepod populations under GLOBEC Canada on the east coast would provide useful comparisons with US GLOBEC studies on Georges Bank. Similarly, salmon studies on the west coasts of the United States and Canada offer possible points of comparision.

  ACTION ITEM: Structure the next SSC meeting to allow the majority of time to be devoted to the working committees. Include discussion about what to be looking for in the regional programs.

  International GLOBEC:

  Cisco Werner then brought the SSC up-to-date on International GLOBEC efforts. His summary of activities within the regional offices included news of:

  - Appointment of a SPACC executive committee
  - Affiliation of SPACC to field programs
  - Synthesis Office set up at IOC for SPACC
  - Various workshops sponsored
  - Future representation at workshops in 2002 and 2003
  - Multi-national impact increasing with several countries now operating GLOBEC-like programs

  Werner then discussed the main focal points of the International Program, including retrospective analysis and time series studies; the Eastern Boundary currents and modeling capabilities; GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment) targeted over the next five years; and global analysis, integration and modeling committee work - looking at the whole biosphere and geosphere in an integrative way (GAIM).

  ACTION ITEM: Cisco is to put together a workshop with both the GODAE and Eastern Boundary participants.

  Science Talks:

  Following lunch, Steve Murawski (NMFS, NEFSC) presented a Science Talk about the status of Georges Bank in terms of primary stocks and where he sees the challenges. Future challenges include:

  - Need for improved data collection from fishers
  - Need for targeted improvements in fishery independent surveys
  - Must determine BMSY, MSY for chronically overfished stocks
  - Need for spatially explicit science and management
  - Need to better understand ecosystem effects of fishing - documenting effects and minimizing fishery "footprints"
  - Understanding secondary fishing effect on ecosystem components
  - Effects of fishing on intra-stock diversity
  - Deconvolving demographics and ecosystem effects on recruitment variability

  He then presented data on the Georges Bank haddock population and a brief history of the Georges Bank Atlantic Halibut industry. Cod distributions were also covered, showing a dramatic reduction in ages of females over time, with no common thread of adverse environmental conditions.

  The final guest speaker was Cynthia Decker, who was at the meeting on behalf of the Census Marine Life Program. Decker gave an overview of the program, which currently is developing a scientific strategy that will be released to the scientific community for comment and then posted on their web site. They are particularly interested in biodiversity, especially in lesser-known areas. Ultimately they will develop a public outreach and education strategy.

  The SSC then revisited concerns about the CGOA proposals, and the lack of a meso-scale sampling program. Also lacking is work on euphausiids, top trophic level components, and apex predators. Discussion ensued about various ways to compensate, including some work right off the docks at Seward Lab rather than aboard ship. Again, it was decided that the PIs themselves should find ways to adjust and fill in the gaps. Another possibility is to talk with the Coast Guard and others about using ships that may have space.

  ACTION ITEM: Fogarty to address a letter to both Hal Batchelder and NEP Executive Committee chair Ted Strub, summarizing the issues of concern and potential avenues to address issues of concern. Batchelder to convey the feelings of the SSC to the PIs at the January meeting as well.

  Fogarty updated the group on the proposal for a special issue of Oceanography. There was a general consensus among the SSC that the cost would be money well spent ($25-30,000). Target date is Fall 2001, and will tentatively include the following chapters:

  - Overview (Fogarty and Powell)
  - Georges Bank (Wiebe)
  - NEP Overview (Strub and Batchelder)
  - California Current
  - Gulf of Alaska
  - Southern Ocean (Hofmann)
  - Climate Change (Mantua)
  - Comparative Analysis (Hollowed and Fogarty)
  - Summary and Synthesis to include next generation questions (ExCo)

  ACTION ITEM: Chairs of local executive committees and regional programs are to put together groups of authors to provide materials. Drafts due by mid-summer 2001. Papers to cover main components of the program for each regional effort, plus modeling, retrospective, process and technology studies.

  A quick reminder about SSC elections was forthcoming.

  ACTION ITEM: Forward suggestions to Fogarty. Fogarty to put together a slate of candidates before year’s end for each of the three openings. This slate will be shaped by the executive committee, and will be limited to three candidates per slot. The executive committee will issue a notice to members concerning Beardsley and Fogarty who have to stand for reelection.

  A quick tally of where the next SSC meeting should be held was taken.

  ACTION ITEM: Batchelder to explore sites in Corvallis and/or Portland as the next venue. Facility availability and potential dates to be given to the national coordinating office ASAP.

  The meeting was adjourned at 15:40.