Some Predictions

#### Example Predictions of Changes in the CCS Associated with Global Climate Change

Decreased inflow from the north and total transport in the CCS (Peterson et al. 1993)

- Potential Impact: Decreased zooplankton production and prey for higher trophic levels (fish) (Chelton et al. 1982)

Increased intensity of upwelling, offshore transport and mesoscale activity (Bakun 1990, Hsieh and Boer 1992)

- Potential Impact: Decreased survival and recruitment to coastal fish and invertebrate populations because of increased offshore transport of larvae and/or dispersion of prey organisms (Lasker 1975; Parrish et al. 1981; Bailey 1981; Farrell et al. 1991).

Altered frequency and intensity of ENSO events (Meehl et al. 1993)

- Potential Impact: More frequent and stronger disruptions of "normal" conditions, favoring different species adapted to disturbed environments; periodic warmer than average temperatures; perhaps regime shifts.

Increased average sea surface temperature (1-2 deg C; Manabe et al. 1991, 1992) and increased stratification of the water column (Peterson et al. 1993)

- Potential Impact: Shifts in major biogeographic boundaries; altered recruitment rates of coastal species through changes in the effectiveness of larval transport; increases in warm water predators altering mortality patterns and rates.