West Coast Planning Summary

## West Coast Planning Summary (From Ted Strub)

At the SSC meeting next week in DC I will summarize the past planning activities for the California Current/Eastern Boundary Current effort in the US GLOBEC program. To help cover 5 years of effort in 20 minutes, I am sending a summary of what I will say, including: 1) a time line of activities divided into two columns, one for the various GLOBEC activities (about 5 different lines of efforts) and a second for the CoOP (NSF's program on Coastal Ocean Processes) parallel effort; 2) my interpretation of where these efforts stand; 3) what I propose should happen in the next 6-7 months and what the SSC needs to discuss and recommend.

Time Line of GLOBEC CCS Planning, CoOP West Coast Planning and other planning (GLOBEC International SPACC, AMIGO/IAI/GLOBEC, PICES/GLOBEC CCCC and COP/PNWCERS programs)

                      GLOBEC                         CoOP

    Sep 1991: Bodega Bay CCS Mtg

    Sep 1992: Bodega Bay GLOBEC Rpt # 7

    Dec 1992:                                       Strub summarizes GLOBEC CCS to
                                                    CoOP SSC.

    Jan 1993: GLOBEC SF Mtg - CoOP represented.
                     Prioritize CCS Activities.

    Jul 1993:                                        CoOP WC Planning Mtg -
    Portland.
                                                     Smith and Brink lead.

    Oct 1993: GLOBEC - CoOP Joint Mtg, WHOI: Need Implementation Plans for
                     both programs + Joint Communique, then issue AO for modeling.

    Feb 1994: Rough draft of GLOBEC IP              Powell and Strub discuss possible
              revised at Oc Sci and later           joint process study sites with
              at UC Davis.                          CoOP SSC at Oc Sci: N. CA & OR.

    Mar 1994: GLOBEC SSC at NCAR discusses
                      IP. Renames it a Science Plan
                      and further revises.

    Jun 1994: GLOBEC-INT SPACC mtg on global studies
                     of small pelagics in La Paz, MX.

    Aug 1994     Joint GLOBEC - CoOP Mtg in SF. Develop Joint Communique
                         by October SSC meetings as basis for Modeling AO.

    Aug 1994: GLOBEC CCS Science Plan
                      published Rpt # 11.

    Sep 1994: CEOS (Climate and Eastern Oc.        CoOP West Coast Rpt published:
                     Systems) mtg (small pelagics;            Rpt # 4.
                      with many of the SPACC players)

    Oct 1994: Joint Communique written by Strub and Smith: considered by both SSCs.
                     GLOBEC SSC: minor revisions         CoOP SSC: minor revisions
                     GLOBEC SSC: Modeling AO discussed;
                     Ready to issue when budgets known.

    Nov 1994: NOAA OGP FUNDING SHORTFALL HALTS AO PROCESS

    Apr 1995: GLOBEC SSC Discussion:
                     We consider but discard idea of beginning CCS modeling work
                     by (one time)taking $1M from Georges Bank?
                     We decide to begin CCS modeling + other activities
                     when total budget exceeds $4.5M?
                     NOAA/COP pledges $3M when budget allows.

    Apr 1995: GLOBEC planning mtg is held
                      for Alaska Gyre/Bering Sea
                      (CCCC program).

    May 1995:                                     CoOP decides to shelve West Coast
                                                  program, start Great Lakes
                                                  (Smith and Brink not present).
                                                  Based on: politics, lack of GLOBEC
                                                  commitment to CCS, new GLOBEC
                                                  planning in Alaskan Gyre,
                                                  replacements on CoOP SSC, and
                                                  miscommunication between programs.

    Jun 1995: AMIGO/IAI/GLOBEC Mtg, Stanford.
                    Write proposal to IAI for
                    planning mtg - EBCs along
                    N and S America - Eventually
                    successful: Meet in Nov. 1996.

    Oct 1995: GLOBEC SSC - CCS depends               CoOP SSC: Smith asks:
                     on COP. COP says                "What the hell happened to the
                     "NO PROBLEM"                     CoOP West Coast plans?
                     coordinating funding             Response: "Huh?"
                     with NSF.                       (Brink not present.)
                     CCCC planning to continue.

    Nov 1995: GLOBEC INT SPACC mtg in Namibia:
                     1st draft of Impl Plan for small pelagics.
                     Fairly specific, thanks to S. Africans.

    Jan 1996: NOAA/COP Regional Program in
                    Pacific NW "funded" -- PNWCERS.
                    Initial activity: Workshop in mid-1996.
                    Broad content; Focus? Unclear.
                    Salmon? Unclear.
                    Coastal ocean shelf processes? Unclear.

    Jan 1996: Alaska Gyre/Bering Sea CCCC mtg.
                    CCCC Implementation plans:
                    Alaskan Gyre and Bering Sea.

    Feb 1996:                                        CoOP SSC: Brink and Smith
                                                     refresh memories
                                                     on West Coast.
                                                     Powell pledges top
                                                     US GLOBEC priority for
                                                     next activity IS
                                                     Calif. Current.

    Apr 1996: This GLOBEC SSC meeting:
           *Discuss Alaska Gyre and Bering Sea CCCC Impl. Plans.
           *Review CCS status:  Ready to proceed with modeling AO if
                      NSF and/or COP contributes more?
           *Longer range plans in NE Pacific? Relation of CCS and CCCC?
                      Relation of US GLOBEC and COP/PNWCERS.

    Summer 1996? NOAA/COP Pacific NW mtg (PNWCERS) Workshop:
                 to discuss large scale physical - biological connections,
                 social implications of climate shifts - salmon?
                 Spread across: basin-scale, river, estuary, coastal
                             ocean, human influences, management
                             policy, socio-economics.

    Aug 1996? GLOBEC INT SPACC mtg in Mexico City?
              Final implementation plan for small pelagics.
              Applies globally, including possible CCS activities.

    Fall 1996?  AMIGO/IAI/GLOBEC Mtg in Chile.
               Write Implementation Plans for CCS
               and Peru-Chile Current for zooplankton,
               nearshore benthic invertebrates, and
               small pelagics.

Strub's interpretation of GLOBEC CCS status:

Thus, besides the parallel interest of CoOP (after it finishes with Great Lakes) and the Canadian GLOBEC west coast plans (soon to be funded), there are 5 different planning activities related to US GLOBEC interests in the California Current:

1) The core US GLOBEC CCS plans have produced two reports and an unpublished joint statement of interest with CoOP. NSF was preparing to issue a modeling AO in October 1994, when NOAA shortfalls left no NSF money for the CCS. In April 1995 the SSC decided not to take $1M, one time only, from Georges Bank for a CCS modeling AO, but to limit Georges Bank to $4.5M and use the next money that appears to begin the CCS program with a modeling+ AO and plans for a growing program. The hope is still that NOAA/COP will contribute $3M to the pot, freeing $ for the CCS. The CCS focus still includes zooplankton in general, small pelagics (now everywhere along the coast), benthic invertebrates, and a new interest (?) in salmon in the center/north.

A comparative study between Oregon and N/C California could include zooplankton, juvenile salmon survival in the coastal ocean, benthic invertebrate recruitment, and small pelagics, but this needs discussion by the SSC.

2) GLOBEC INT has continued to plan for global studies of small pelagic fish and climate Change (SPACC). They should produce an implementation plan for what to measure, where and how often, by early 1997, which will apply to the CCS as well as elsewhere. There is no identified funding to proceed from there, although GLOBEC.INT is now core IGBP program and might look for funding outside of US GLOBEC resources.

3) PICES/GLOBEC has developed plans for participation in an international program on Carrying Capacity and Climate Change (CCCC) in the Alaskan Gyre and Bering Sea. The draft plans in the Alaskan Gyre call for modeling, monitoring and retrospective studies that would compliment similar activities in the CCS. The process study discussed to date in the Alaskan Gyre might look much like the regional process studies off Oregon and N. California, with a specific focus on survival of juvenile salmon, looking at their predators and prey in the coastal ocean in a region approximately 150 km offshore and 300 km alongshore. Initial site discussed is off Prince William Sound, since others are working in the sound and logistics are favorable. Satellite data and PALACE floats would monitor the large-scale gyre circulation. No funding identified other than US GLOBEC, although this is presumably part of GLOBEC.INT (?), so validated by IGBP.

4) NOAA/COP has planned 4 new regional ecosystem studies during the last year, one of which is in the Pacific Northwest (Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystem Regional Study - PNWCERS). Focus is vaguely stated to be on salmon survival, covering rivers, estuaries, coastal ocean and deep ocean environments, human-induced changes, management issues, with possible emphasis on interdecadal time scales and climatic regime shifts. It will damage the US GLOBEC CCS program if PNWCERS is considered to be COP contribution to the US GLOBEC CCS effort. As a separate program, however, some activities could be complementary and quite positive. A workshop to summarize the state of knowledge is planned for summer 1996. Money for later research will be limited, but some fraction might provide support for retrospective studies that would complement work envisioned by US GLOBEC.

5) AMIGO (AMericas Interhemisphere Geo-biosphere Organization) held a meeting in June 1996 at Stanford to discuss comparative studies along the west coasts of N. and S. America. GLOBEC was strongly represented. The AMIGO marine ecologists emphasize the intertidal, nearshore ecosystems, with a benthic invertebrate focus, while the GLOBEC ecologists extend that interest over and beyond the continental shelf, to zooplankton and small pelagic fish. A meeting to develop specific implementation plans will be held in Fall, 1996.