NEP Science Investigators Put Past Research to the Test in Future Forecasting Exercise

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At a U.S. GLOBEC-NEP Science Investigators’ meeting during September 2007, participants were given a challenge. They were asked to apply what they had learned of how ecosystems respond to climate forcing in the northeastern Pacific Ocean (NEP) towards making practical predictions on the spot.

Climate forecasts for the next 12 months were presented to the group, with a focus on the developing La Nina in the tropical Pacific. The charge to the 36 oceanographers, marine ecologists and fisheries scientists in attendance was to consider the effects of La Nina in developing projections through summer 2008 for physical conditions and their consequences for marine ecosystems of the California Current System (CCS) and the Coastal Gulf of Alaska (CGOA).

The exercise, outcomes, and insights are described in more detail in an article written by Nick Bond, Hal Batchelder and Steve Bograd that was published in the August 26th, 2008 issue of EOS (vol. 89, No. 35). According to the authors, "...the exercise illuminated why some forecasts had high confidence, while others, esp. in the more northern regions, had lower confidence. The exercise led to evaluation of what we really know/understand about climate-ecosystem interactions and how confident we are in our understanding of complex processes. The expert opinion process may be useful for identifying gaps in knowledge worthy of increased emphasis."

To view the PDF of the summary article click on the following link: Bond, N. A., Batchelder, H.P., Bograd, S. J. 2008. Forecasting Northeastern Pacific ecosystem responses to La Nina. EOS, 89 (35), 321-322. (26 August 2008)