| Date | Title/Topic | Presenters | Time |
| Wed 3/18 | Modeling Climate - to Fish - to Fishers: Yes We Can! |
Dr. Enrique Curchitser, Rutgers University Dr. Zack Powell, UC Berkeley |
noon |
| Thurs 3/26 | Coupled biophysical modeling in the Northern California Current: GLOBEC results and future directions | Dr. Hal Batchelder, Oregon State University | 10:30 AM |
| Tues 3/31 | Climate variation and ecosystem effects in the Pacific | Dr. Frank Schwing, NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center | noon |
| Wed 4/01 | Forecasting salmon returns from ocean indicators | Dr. Bill Peterson, NMFS Northwest Fisheries Science Center | noon |
| Wed 4/08 | Salmon population dynamics in the Pacific Northwest | Dr. Louis Botsford, UC Davis | noon |
| Wed 4/29 | Structuring of Southern Ocean food webs: highlights from Southern Ocean GLOBEC | Dr. Eileen Hofmann, Old Dominion University | noon |
There are many challenges to developing Earth System, or end-to-end, models. Some of the challenges are technical: How to represent the widest possible range of relevant physical and biological scales and processes given limited computational resources. Some are conceptual: How many nutrients, phyto- and zoo-plankton functional groups are needed for a given application, how to account for species migration and adaptability and how to explore the relative roles of climate and fishing pressure on fish populations. In this talk we focus on two aspects of an emerging endto- end model: 1. Downscaling of the climate system to regional scales and 2. The development of a fully integrated ecosystem model that includes fish and fishers. The climate downscaling is based on a two-way coupled climate (NCAR-CCSM) and regional (ROMS) models. We will describe the strategies adopted for the coupling and the usefulness of the system for downscaled climate projections. The ecosystem model we present is based on the NEMURO family of ecosystem models. It includes a lower trophic level NPZD model tightly coupled to an individual based model, currently implemented for sardine and anchovy. The ecosystem model is being developed as a tightly coupled module of the regional physical model ROMS. We discuss the challenges that arise from this integration, and present some early results from the ongoing work.
More than a decade of US GLOBEC funding of model and field investigations has improved knowledge on atmospherically-forced patterns of circulation and hydrography in the Northern California Current, and how physical processes interact with ecology to structure continental shelf pelagic ecosystem dynamics and function. Results of coupled biophysical models are highly dependent on having realistic simulations of the ocean physics. This talk will summarize some of the results of GLOBEC's modeling investigations in the Northeast Pacific. How the physical and ecosystem models may be used to answer climate- and conservation-related societal needs will be addressed. Directions for future coupled biophysical models of the Oregon shelf region, including real-time forecasts of the production and fate of shelf primary production and its effects on dissolved oxygen concentration and incipient hypoxic conditions will be outlined.